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🎲 Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes

Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes for Materials Informatics

πŸ“š 5 Chapters πŸ’» 35 Code Examples ⏱️ 100-120 min πŸ“Š Intermediate
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🎯 Series Overview

Probability theory and stochastic processes are the mathematical foundations for uncertainty quantification, process control, and data analysis in materials science. This series covers from the basics of probability variables and distributions to the law of large numbers, central limit theorem, Markov processes, Poisson processes, and stochastic differential equations (SDE), learning theory and Python implementation in pairs. Practical applications including uncertainty modeling in materials processes, quality control, failure prediction, and time series data analysis are also covered.

Learning Path

flowchart LR A[Chapter 1
Random Variables] B[Chapter 2
Central Limit Theorem] C[Chapter 3
Markov Processes] D[Chapter 4
Stochastic Differential Equations] E[Chapter 5
Process Control] A --> B --> C --> D --> E style A fill:#667eea,stroke:#764ba2,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff style B fill:#667eea,stroke:#764ba2,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff style C fill:#667eea,stroke:#764ba2,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff style D fill:#667eea,stroke:#764ba2,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff style E fill:#667eea,stroke:#764ba2,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff

πŸ“‹ Learning Objectives

  • Understand the theory of probability variables and probability distributions and implement them in Python
  • Theoretically understand the law of large numbers and central limit theorem and verify them through simulation
  • Understand the properties of Markov processes and Poisson processes and apply them
  • Understand the basics of Wiener processes and stochastic differential equations and implement numerical solutions
  • Practice probability modeling and quality control in materials process engineering

πŸ“– Prerequisites

Basic knowledge of calculus (integration, basic differential equations) is sufficient. Understanding of basic Python usage is desirable. Knowledge of linear algebra (matrix operations) will enable deeper understanding.

Chapter 1
Fundamentals of Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Learn about discrete and continuous random variables, probability mass functions (PMF) and probability density functions (PDF), expectation, variance, and moments, and representative distributions (binomial distribution, Poisson distribution, normal distribution, exponential distribution).

Discrete/Continuous Random Variables PMF/PDF Expectation/Variance Binomial/Poisson Distribution Normal/Exponential Distribution
πŸ’» 7 Code Examples ⏱️ 20-24 min
Read Chapter 1 β†’
Chapter 2
Law of Large Numbers and Central Limit Theorem

Learn the weak and strong law of large numbers, proof and applications of the central limit theorem, and sample distribution theory, and verify them through simulation. Applications to materials science data are also covered.

Weak/Strong Law of Large Numbers Central Limit Theorem Sample Distribution Convergence Visualization Materials Science Applications
πŸ’» 7 Code Examples ⏱️ 20-24 min
Read Chapter 2 β†’
Chapter 3
Markov Processes and Poisson Processes

Learn the basics of Markov chains, transition probability matrices, stationary distributions, continuous-time Markov processes, and properties of Poisson processes. Applications to process engineering (failure modeling) are also implemented.

Markov Chains Transition Probability Matrix Stationary Distribution Poisson Process Failure Modeling
πŸ’» 7 Code Examples ⏱️ 20-24 min
Read Chapter 3 β†’
Chapter 4
Stochastic Differential Equations and Wiener Processes

Learn Brownian motion and Wiener processes, basics of stochastic differential equations (SDE), ItΓ΄ integral, geometric Brownian motion, and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, and implement numerical solutions using the Euler-Maruyama method.

Wiener Process Stochastic Differential Equations ItΓ΄ Integral Geometric Brownian Motion OU Process
πŸ’» 7 Code Examples ⏱️ 20-24 min
Read Chapter 4 β†’
Chapter 5
Applications to Process Control

Learn stochastic process modeling, time series data analysis (ARMA/ARIMA), quality control and control charts, uncertainty in process optimization, Kalman filter, and failure prediction and maintenance planning.

Time Series Modeling ARMA/ARIMA Control Charts Kalman Filter Predictive Maintenance
πŸ’» 7 Code Examples ⏱️ 20-24 min
Read Chapter 5 β†’

πŸ“š Recommended Learning Paths

Pattern 1: Beginner - Theory and Practice Balanced (5-7 days)

Pattern 2: Intermediate - Fast Track (3 days)

Pattern 3: Topic-Focused - Computational Skills (1 day)

🎯 Overall Learning Outcomes

Upon completing this series, you will achieve:

Knowledge Level

Practical Skills

Application Ability

πŸ› οΈ Technologies and Tools Used

Main Libraries

Development Environment

Recommended Tools

πŸš€ Next Steps

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